Friday, January 25, 2008

Peak Coal in South Africa?

This week certainly was a roller-coaster on the stock market. Down 300, down another 300, then up 600, and now down 200. Gold went down in price during the week, but near the end, it suddenly jumped up to $913 an ounce, the highest I have ever seen it. With energy shares and more general shares going down, I wonder why gold would shoot up in price. I found out why today.

There is a shortage of coal in South Africa, as can be seen in many articles, including this one. This shortage has gotten so severe that the government is asking industries to cut back, and as a result all gold and platinum mining in South Africa has ended. So this explains the higher gold prices. But what about gold companies?

I checked a few that made up a gold fund that I have invested in. All mine from the Americas, Europe, or Australia, except Gold Fields, which is a South Africa company. All of the stocks went up today except Gold Fields, which went down.

But it makes me wonder about coal. People say that coal will last hundreds of years. I did a calculation recently and came up with 161 years, assuming linear growth rates. So why did this shortage occur? And will the rest of the world eventually be like South Africa? I hear recently that Virginia hit peak coal in 1996. So Virginia must be importing from other states. Will the world run out of coal soon?

So right now there are two reasons why gold investing is good: the current economic downturn and coal shortages in gold producing regions.