Welcome to Cliffhanger, my newest blog. This blog will be devoted to Peak Oil and related issues, such as Global Warming, alternative energy, hybrid and fuel cell cars, development encroachment, and anything else that impinges on the health of this planet or on our supply of resources.
In my opinion, we have a cliffhanger coming in the next few years, and it is hard to say what will happen. According to many experts, including Kenneth Deffeyes, Colin Campbell, and Matt Simmons, world production of oil is nearing a peak, and despite rapid demand growth, especially from the United States, China, and India, production will decrease rapidly a few years after the peak is reached. Projections of the peak are anywhere from right now to 2112, with the median seeming now to be somewhere around 2008. After this, oil and gasoline prices will rise dramatically, and economic recession or depression, world tensions, possible famines, and other undesirable things will start to happen. A good review of what will happen to Suburbia can be found in the film The End of Suburbia, published by Postcarbon Books. A good site for describing these changes rather frankly is Clusterfuck Nation, by James Kunstler, especially his Chronicles.
Or will all this happen? Disaster has been predicted over and over again, especially by Colin Campbell, who always seems to be predicting imminent disaster. President Jimmy Carter in 1977 said that the peak was coming in the 1980s, but developments in oil extraction technology and discoveries in the North Sea and Prudhoe Bay has delayed this peak. The economists say that supply and demand will take care of the situation. There are alternative sources of energy, such as wind, tar sands, hydrogen, solar, coal, nuclear, and natural gas (but each of these has their own problems, especially the latter three). When oil becomes too expensive, these other technologies will take over. Further, technological developments will make what use of energy we do have more efficient. A good example of this is the Toyota Prius, which uses a motor to help maximize the efficiency of an internal combustion engine, resulting in a car with 50 mpg fuel economy. Because of this cliffhanger I see coming up, I have purchased a Prius.
So what will happen in the future? There is no denying that supply and demand is a powerful force. But will it fully address the Peak Oil problem? I think it is going to be a close call. This one is a cliffhanger, folks. This is why I have named my blog "Cliffhanger". I have chosen this blog as my Monday blog, on the most depressing day of the week, and after James Kunstler publishes his next installment of his Clusterfuck Chronicles. I expect that demand for oil will drop drastically when oil rises in price, causing conservation and technological developments to increase. This happened in the 1970s, resulting in a huge oil glut. It will happen again. But supplies will continue to dwindle. In my opinion, supply and demand will kick in, but it will result in a massive disruption in our way of life, as we convert from one set of lifestyles to another. The result will be a crisis, and this may be well the Fourth Turning that Strauss and Howe are calling for. The results of this disruption and adjustment to me are uncertain. And that is why I am monitoring this situation and have constructed a blog for it, in which I will report any developments I see on it and also my feelings about what is going to happen. I am hoping for a happy conclusion to this crisis but am still concerned.
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