One of the most misused words in the English language right now is tsunami. You almost never heard of the word until late 2004, when the most powerful tsunami of our lifetimes struck the Indian Ocean off Sumatra, killing 220,000 people in several nations. Ever since then, people have used, overused, and misused the word repeatedly to describe any kind of a great change or event. Everything's a tsunami nowadays. If instead, a half-mile-wide asteroid had struck Sumatra killing 220,000 people, everything now would be an asteroid strike. Especially galling is the use of the term to mean the coastal wave that floods and demolishes coastlines during a hurricane (or typhoon or cyclone). That's a storm surge, not a tsunami.
So here we have two people using the word tsunami to mean something, namely Jim Kunstler and Alan Greenspan. In his Clusterf_ck Nation Chronicles for this week, Mr. Kunstler describes this whole credit crisis as a tsunami. He said that what we are seeing now is the withdrawal phase of a tsunami, namely the deflationary recession that seems to be developing as a result of so many mortgages foreclosing and the resultant credit freeze. He compares it to the hundreds of feet revealed by the withdrawing waves of the ocean, describing the flotsam and shipwrecks that are revealed. Then he says that the tidal wave part is coming, namely runaway inflation, and that will wipe all the financial stuff clean. He says that all the money that the Fed put in will come sloshing back. I am not too sure that such an inflation will result, but it seems plausible to me. In any case, he used the word tsunami properly.
Not so Alan Greenspan. Today he said, "We are in the midst of a once-in-a century credit tsunami". He then says, that whatever regulatory changes are made, "they will pale in comparison to the change already evident in today's markets." But he does not show how the credit crisis is like a tsunami. Nowhere in his words do I hear him speak of a withdrawal phase and a tidal wave, and nowhere do I see any other valid reference to a tsunami, other than it is a big change. He is one of these people that use tsunami to explain anything and would have used "asteroid strike" instead if the great destructive event of late 2004 had been an asteroid strike instead of a tsunami.
So please use tsunami sparingly and properly, and beware of upcoming inflation that could destroy the economy in the next few years.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
Will Football Bring Peak Oil to the Nation's Attention?
We have known for many years now that not only is oil a finite resource, but that production of it will peak sometime in the Ut-Oh (00) Decade, after which supplies will decline while demand is still rising, causing major adverse consequences. But no one ever seems to talk about it. All the politicians, including Senator Obama tonight, speak of energy independence from rogue nations, and expect too much out of other sources of energy. Everything else, including Iraq, the nuclear desires of Iran, Israel, health care, global warming, mountain removal, and the Presidential election campaign seem to be more important, at least in the eyes of the media.
The latest financial crisis is an example of this. All kinds of attention has been applied to the crisis, and people have warned that another Great Depression will result if the Great Bailout Package of 2008 is not passed quickly. That may very well be true, since I see firms, such as Bear Stearns, AIG, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers and so forth fail left and right. But we have been through this in the last Great Depression, and we know what the solution is, and it will be applied.
The whole thing is masking the real danger to our future: Peak Oil. What happens when the oil and gasoline run out?
We may find out this weekend. There is an event coming up which will bring attention to the media and the nation as a whole. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike have disrupted oil and gasoline production at a time when gasoline supplies were low and when there is almost no slack in the system. Major shortages have now appeared in the Southeast, including many of the cities that I have visited in recent years to go to conventions: Atlanta, Knoxville, Charlotte, and Nashville. Nashville is said to have only 15% of its gasoline stations open. Still, this is regional, and gasoline will come back.
Enter Football. This is the sport which takes even more public attention than Iraq, global warming, or the election. It seems that global warming and Iraq take priority over Peak Oil, and further, that Football takes priority over these. What happens when the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Crimson Tide of Alabama is far more important than how the financial crisis is resolved and certainly more than Peak Oil.
Well this weekend, Peak Oil may effectively trump Football. There is a gasoline shortage in Athens, Georgia, home of the Bulldogs. What happens when zillions of fans zero in on Athens to watch this Great Game of the Year? It will run the stations out of gasoline and people will not be able to go to work on Monday, that's what. And that is when the nation will find out about Peak Oil. A petroleum executive has recommended cancellation of the game; that in itself would be a significant event, but not one to bring attention to the American public. Besides, Governor Sonny "Chicken" Perdue has called the idea "ridiculous". We will see what ridiculous is when the following events happen.
Hordes of fans from Georgia, Alabama and other states descend upon tiny Athens to watch the game, guzzling gasoline at pumps along the way. The fans run the pumps out of gasoline. Many fans can't finish the trip. When the game is over, everyone tries to go home, but can't because the pumps are all dry. Thousands of cars run out of gasoline on the highways, producing scenes reminiscent of the end of Persian Gulf War I or out of Deep Impact, the movie. The authorities can't get these cars out of the way, because they don't have the gasoline to do it with. In fact, the police can't even do their normal patrols, and so unruly crowds develop and loot and pillage Athens and the surrounding area. When Monday morning comes, thousands of residents can't go to their jobs or do their business; Athens shuts down. A week later, when food trucks can't get through, food shortages develop and a possible famine may occur.
I am not saying these events will necessarily occur. But if even only some of them occur, maybe the newscasters and media harpies will pause on the financial crisis a bit and take a look at what is happening in Athens, Georgia. And maybe then the entire nation will realize what Peak Oil is and what it means about its future.
The latest financial crisis is an example of this. All kinds of attention has been applied to the crisis, and people have warned that another Great Depression will result if the Great Bailout Package of 2008 is not passed quickly. That may very well be true, since I see firms, such as Bear Stearns, AIG, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers and so forth fail left and right. But we have been through this in the last Great Depression, and we know what the solution is, and it will be applied.
The whole thing is masking the real danger to our future: Peak Oil. What happens when the oil and gasoline run out?
We may find out this weekend. There is an event coming up which will bring attention to the media and the nation as a whole. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike have disrupted oil and gasoline production at a time when gasoline supplies were low and when there is almost no slack in the system. Major shortages have now appeared in the Southeast, including many of the cities that I have visited in recent years to go to conventions: Atlanta, Knoxville, Charlotte, and Nashville. Nashville is said to have only 15% of its gasoline stations open. Still, this is regional, and gasoline will come back.
Enter Football. This is the sport which takes even more public attention than Iraq, global warming, or the election. It seems that global warming and Iraq take priority over Peak Oil, and further, that Football takes priority over these. What happens when the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Crimson Tide of Alabama is far more important than how the financial crisis is resolved and certainly more than Peak Oil.
Well this weekend, Peak Oil may effectively trump Football. There is a gasoline shortage in Athens, Georgia, home of the Bulldogs. What happens when zillions of fans zero in on Athens to watch this Great Game of the Year? It will run the stations out of gasoline and people will not be able to go to work on Monday, that's what. And that is when the nation will find out about Peak Oil. A petroleum executive has recommended cancellation of the game; that in itself would be a significant event, but not one to bring attention to the American public. Besides, Governor Sonny "Chicken" Perdue has called the idea "ridiculous". We will see what ridiculous is when the following events happen.
Hordes of fans from Georgia, Alabama and other states descend upon tiny Athens to watch the game, guzzling gasoline at pumps along the way. The fans run the pumps out of gasoline. Many fans can't finish the trip. When the game is over, everyone tries to go home, but can't because the pumps are all dry. Thousands of cars run out of gasoline on the highways, producing scenes reminiscent of the end of Persian Gulf War I or out of Deep Impact, the movie. The authorities can't get these cars out of the way, because they don't have the gasoline to do it with. In fact, the police can't even do their normal patrols, and so unruly crowds develop and loot and pillage Athens and the surrounding area. When Monday morning comes, thousands of residents can't go to their jobs or do their business; Athens shuts down. A week later, when food trucks can't get through, food shortages develop and a possible famine may occur.
I am not saying these events will necessarily occur. But if even only some of them occur, maybe the newscasters and media harpies will pause on the financial crisis a bit and take a look at what is happening in Athens, Georgia. And maybe then the entire nation will realize what Peak Oil is and what it means about its future.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Ill-Conceived Taxpayer Revolt
I now hear from CNN that taxpayers are revolting against the bailout plan. They object that why should they pay for the mistakes of all these fund managers and banks? I can see to some extent their anger. We pay the government taxes, then the government gives this money over to mismanaged companies. One person says, "The government does not have $700 billion dollars. WE have $700 billion, and it is being taken from us." Another one says, "Stop blogging, posting comments, and call your congressman."
This now reminds me of the American Revolution. That Fourth Turning was started by anger by the people over taxes, although the rowdy devil-may-care attitude among the youth of that era was a contributer. I do not think the Fourth Turning that is now occurring will be like the American Revolution.
As I said in my previous blog, it won't be like the Great Depression either. This is because people will do it a different way this time, and there are protections now that weren't there in 1929. Instead of standing aside, preaching about prosperity around the corner, and letting the free market freely take down all the stocks and all the banks along with it, we are now bailing out all these companies and holding the line on the market threat. I believe Mr. Paulson says if we don't approve of this proposed $700 billion bailout package, the result will be disaster. I believe he is correct. In fact, if we don't pass this, a repeat of the 1930s Depression will occur. These people that are complaining about the government robbing them with these deals are probably not old enough to know what this Depression was all about. 62 is a pretty old age, but if you are 62 years old, you have never experienced what this Depression was like, and neither has anyone younger. We forget because those who were around then are few and not speaking up as loudly as they were.
So now is not the time to be self-righteous about how the Government is robbing you of money. We need to support the current efforts at trying to keep things afloat. Congress needs to pass this emergency measure! If they don't, the Dow will plummet 1000 points in one day, and you can prepare to see much of your life savings disappear. Of course, those who run the companies need to be thrown out, but let's keep the companies afloat so we don't have another 1930s Depression.
Write your Congressman, and tell him you support the plan.
This now reminds me of the American Revolution. That Fourth Turning was started by anger by the people over taxes, although the rowdy devil-may-care attitude among the youth of that era was a contributer. I do not think the Fourth Turning that is now occurring will be like the American Revolution.
As I said in my previous blog, it won't be like the Great Depression either. This is because people will do it a different way this time, and there are protections now that weren't there in 1929. Instead of standing aside, preaching about prosperity around the corner, and letting the free market freely take down all the stocks and all the banks along with it, we are now bailing out all these companies and holding the line on the market threat. I believe Mr. Paulson says if we don't approve of this proposed $700 billion bailout package, the result will be disaster. I believe he is correct. In fact, if we don't pass this, a repeat of the 1930s Depression will occur. These people that are complaining about the government robbing them with these deals are probably not old enough to know what this Depression was all about. 62 is a pretty old age, but if you are 62 years old, you have never experienced what this Depression was like, and neither has anyone younger. We forget because those who were around then are few and not speaking up as loudly as they were.
So now is not the time to be self-righteous about how the Government is robbing you of money. We need to support the current efforts at trying to keep things afloat. Congress needs to pass this emergency measure! If they don't, the Dow will plummet 1000 points in one day, and you can prepare to see much of your life savings disappear. Of course, those who run the companies need to be thrown out, but let's keep the companies afloat so we don't have another 1930s Depression.
Write your Congressman, and tell him you support the plan.
Is This the Fourth Turning?
There is a theory of history by Neil Howe and the late William Strauss that says that since there are four periods of a person's life (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood) and four types of generations (Prophet [Boomer], Nomad [Gen X], Hero [Greatest Generation, Millennials] and Adaptive [Silent]), there are four types of periods of history, called the First, Second, Third, and Fourth Turning. The First Turning is a societal high, wherein everything works well and people supported the community. The Second Turning is a time of social turmoil, wherein the Prophet generation challenges the precepts of those in power, causing social changes (for example, civil rights legislation). The Third Turning results from this and constitutes a period where the individual is prominent and society falls apart. The Fourth Turning is one of crisis when people restore the order and one way of life dies and another is born.
The latest First Turning was the 1950s and early 1960s, culminating in John F. Kennedy's Camelot. The latest Second Turning was the youth rebellion of the 1960s and 1970s, when youth protested the Vietnam War and how the Greatest Generation was handling things. It also was a period of financial turmoil, when two gas crises occurred and a period of lagging stock prices prevailed. The latest Third Turning was the Culture Wars of the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, when people did their own things, building credit card debt, obtaining subprime mortgages, and driving gas-hungry SUVs. The question is when the next Fourth Turning will occur.
Such a turning starts with a catalyst that causes a crisis. The 9/11 attacks were not such a catalyst. It was instead a heralding event, similar to the Boston Massacre, the Dred Scott Decision, and the sinking of the Lusitania. Katrina was not such a catalyst. But the present financial crisis may be such a catalyst. It started on 2007 February 27, with the collapse of the mortgage market, leading to a buyout of Countrywide Financial. The crisis simmered for a while, causing a downturn which caused oil prices to slide back. It then broke out in full force in the week of September 15-19 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the buyout of Merrill Lynch, and the government rescue of AIG.
This is somewhat surprising. I thought for sure that peak oil would be the catalyst, but it's possible the mortgage crisis was caused by peak oil. In any case, it appears to have come. The mortgages were the "spark" (Strauss and Howe) that turned into a Crisis. They say that it will be a long time with us, another sign that this is it.
If this is the Fourth Turning, then how will it proceed? The last one started with a Great Depression. That was caused by the laissez-faire, let the market resolve it attitude of the Republicans of that time, including Herbert Hoover. Once FD Roosevelt got into power, he used the powers of the government to turn this country around. We all have knowledge of this Depression now, although you have to be at least 75 years old to have felt the effect of it. In this day and age, if you are at the retirement age of 62, you have absolutely no experience of what things were like during the Great Depression.
However, knowledge of the Depression is affecting events, and my feeling is that this will not be a Great Depression, at least not in the way that the 1930s was. That is why all the bailouts. Every time something that will crash the economy and cause a big Depression threatens (e.g., the failure of AIG), the Government comes in and bails it out. This is one way of handling it. Will it work?
The problem is that for the past few years, with reckless Third Turning abandon, we have been living off money that does not exist; for example, high credit card debts and unpaid mortgages. This present crisis is now people and the system recognizing this fact. The problem is how to fairly distribute the non-money so that it does not cause trouble. Repeated government bailouts will spread it out among all of us by increasing the federal deficit. This will be made up by higher taxes, reduced benefits, or more likely by the Government simply printing more money. This means inflation is headed up, meaning that a serious hyperinflation may be headed our way. The "Mother of all Depressions" may resemble Germany in 1923 more than it does the US in 1932.
In the near future, this crisis will gradually get resolved, and another boom may occur next year. People will feel better about themselves and the market, and once again prosperity will occur. That's when Peak Oil will confront us. The new prosperity will undoubtedly increase oil prices, and may cause them to increase dramatically. Sooner or later we will have to deal with the problem of declining oil supplies. We will need to conserve in the years ahead, even if we get all these alternative sources to work.
The latest First Turning was the 1950s and early 1960s, culminating in John F. Kennedy's Camelot. The latest Second Turning was the youth rebellion of the 1960s and 1970s, when youth protested the Vietnam War and how the Greatest Generation was handling things. It also was a period of financial turmoil, when two gas crises occurred and a period of lagging stock prices prevailed. The latest Third Turning was the Culture Wars of the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, when people did their own things, building credit card debt, obtaining subprime mortgages, and driving gas-hungry SUVs. The question is when the next Fourth Turning will occur.
Such a turning starts with a catalyst that causes a crisis. The 9/11 attacks were not such a catalyst. It was instead a heralding event, similar to the Boston Massacre, the Dred Scott Decision, and the sinking of the Lusitania. Katrina was not such a catalyst. But the present financial crisis may be such a catalyst. It started on 2007 February 27, with the collapse of the mortgage market, leading to a buyout of Countrywide Financial. The crisis simmered for a while, causing a downturn which caused oil prices to slide back. It then broke out in full force in the week of September 15-19 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the buyout of Merrill Lynch, and the government rescue of AIG.
This is somewhat surprising. I thought for sure that peak oil would be the catalyst, but it's possible the mortgage crisis was caused by peak oil. In any case, it appears to have come. The mortgages were the "spark" (Strauss and Howe) that turned into a Crisis. They say that it will be a long time with us, another sign that this is it.
If this is the Fourth Turning, then how will it proceed? The last one started with a Great Depression. That was caused by the laissez-faire, let the market resolve it attitude of the Republicans of that time, including Herbert Hoover. Once FD Roosevelt got into power, he used the powers of the government to turn this country around. We all have knowledge of this Depression now, although you have to be at least 75 years old to have felt the effect of it. In this day and age, if you are at the retirement age of 62, you have absolutely no experience of what things were like during the Great Depression.
However, knowledge of the Depression is affecting events, and my feeling is that this will not be a Great Depression, at least not in the way that the 1930s was. That is why all the bailouts. Every time something that will crash the economy and cause a big Depression threatens (e.g., the failure of AIG), the Government comes in and bails it out. This is one way of handling it. Will it work?
The problem is that for the past few years, with reckless Third Turning abandon, we have been living off money that does not exist; for example, high credit card debts and unpaid mortgages. This present crisis is now people and the system recognizing this fact. The problem is how to fairly distribute the non-money so that it does not cause trouble. Repeated government bailouts will spread it out among all of us by increasing the federal deficit. This will be made up by higher taxes, reduced benefits, or more likely by the Government simply printing more money. This means inflation is headed up, meaning that a serious hyperinflation may be headed our way. The "Mother of all Depressions" may resemble Germany in 1923 more than it does the US in 1932.
In the near future, this crisis will gradually get resolved, and another boom may occur next year. People will feel better about themselves and the market, and once again prosperity will occur. That's when Peak Oil will confront us. The new prosperity will undoubtedly increase oil prices, and may cause them to increase dramatically. Sooner or later we will have to deal with the problem of declining oil supplies. We will need to conserve in the years ahead, even if we get all these alternative sources to work.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
The Five Biggest Problems in the World, Reconsidered
Among all of my blogs, the one I posted to Cliffhanger on 2006 July 26, entitled "The Five Biggest Problems in the World Today" has received more comments than any other blog I have made. Apparently people are interested in world problems, and I think it is good, because that means that there is some hope for the world after all. The problems I listed were:
1. Peak Oil
2. Global Warming
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of Mainline Religions
5. Discrimination
The most recent call, from AndimsoNice, accused me of watching too much CNN. I certainly did not get Peak Oil from CNN. You still get little about this major problem in the news media, even though oil prices are $4 a gallon, the airlines are having major problems, and there are food and fuel shortages throughout the globe. However, the three problems AndimsoNice mentioned are indeed serious ones, so let's consider them. Here they are:
1. Clean drinking water
2. Genocide
3. Food shortages (not foot shortages!)
1. Clean drinking water. Indeed many places in the world are experiencing fresh water shortages. Georgia, a state in the US, is one of these. Some of the lakes have almost gone dry recently from the shortage of water there. Water is a renewable resource, but only so far. After the population grows above a certain point, it consumes more water than can be made available by Nature, so then it becomes non-renewable. Also, water is non-renewable in places where it is scarce; in other words, the deserts. Cities such as Almaty, Phoenix, Timbuktu, and Urumqi are going to have serious problems in the future because hardly any water falls from the sky at these places. They have to rely on rivers or aquifers, which will dry up if population grows rapidly, as it is doing in Phoenix, and perhaps in Urumqi. Global warming caused by fossil fuel consumption is creating more desert and exacerbating the problem. I call this problem the Water Limit, rather than Peak Water, because we don't produce water; there can be no peak production. Another problem lies behind both Peak Oil and the Water Limit, and that is population growth. Ultimately, the human population will have to stop growing.
This problem is a serious one, and I really did not list it, but it does relate to Peak Oil and Global Warming.
2. Genocide. Why do certain people or tyrannical rulers want to kill entire populations or ethnic groups? I think it is because of this "we vs they" mentality. If people are dissatisfied with life, a tyrant can seize on this dissatisfaction and whip up hatred against another people, as Tutsis against Hutus or Germans against Jews. Religion makes the problem worse, as if people were houses, God would be an unoccupied property, and sooner or later, this tyrant will occupy that house and become God. Belief in one self and in those around you may be the best way to help combat genocide. Certainly if genocide exists, it needs to be wiped out, either by the victimized people or by others; for example, our troops should not be in Iraq and Afghanistan but in Myanmar and Sudan.
In any case, Peak Oil will make this problem worse, as people will say that we are running out of oil, so make sure we get it and not those barbarians over there. This problem is related to both Peak Oil and Discrimination, since committing genocide against a people is an extreme case of discriminating against them.
3. Food shortages. Population growth is strongly behind this one. If there are more mouths to feed, more land is needed to grow the food for them. Peak Oil is also strongly related to this problem. In fact, this may be one of the worst effects of Peak Oil. Food is grown for the world today in such bountiful places as Iowa and Brazil, but to grow this food requires oil to transport the food to where it is needed, to operate the farm machinery to grow the food, to make the fertilizer for the crop and so forth. About 90% of the cost of food nowadays is oil. And so food shortages will appear and get worse as oil production declines.
This problem is so related to Peak Oil that I include it as part of this problem.
So now I rank the problems of the world as follows:
1. Peak oil and Food Limits.
2. Global Climate Change and Water Problems
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of mainline religions
5. Discrimination and genocide
1. Peak Oil
2. Global Warming
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of Mainline Religions
5. Discrimination
The most recent call, from AndimsoNice, accused me of watching too much CNN. I certainly did not get Peak Oil from CNN. You still get little about this major problem in the news media, even though oil prices are $4 a gallon, the airlines are having major problems, and there are food and fuel shortages throughout the globe. However, the three problems AndimsoNice mentioned are indeed serious ones, so let's consider them. Here they are:
1. Clean drinking water
2. Genocide
3. Food shortages (not foot shortages!)
1. Clean drinking water. Indeed many places in the world are experiencing fresh water shortages. Georgia, a state in the US, is one of these. Some of the lakes have almost gone dry recently from the shortage of water there. Water is a renewable resource, but only so far. After the population grows above a certain point, it consumes more water than can be made available by Nature, so then it becomes non-renewable. Also, water is non-renewable in places where it is scarce; in other words, the deserts. Cities such as Almaty, Phoenix, Timbuktu, and Urumqi are going to have serious problems in the future because hardly any water falls from the sky at these places. They have to rely on rivers or aquifers, which will dry up if population grows rapidly, as it is doing in Phoenix, and perhaps in Urumqi. Global warming caused by fossil fuel consumption is creating more desert and exacerbating the problem. I call this problem the Water Limit, rather than Peak Water, because we don't produce water; there can be no peak production. Another problem lies behind both Peak Oil and the Water Limit, and that is population growth. Ultimately, the human population will have to stop growing.
This problem is a serious one, and I really did not list it, but it does relate to Peak Oil and Global Warming.
2. Genocide. Why do certain people or tyrannical rulers want to kill entire populations or ethnic groups? I think it is because of this "we vs they" mentality. If people are dissatisfied with life, a tyrant can seize on this dissatisfaction and whip up hatred against another people, as Tutsis against Hutus or Germans against Jews. Religion makes the problem worse, as if people were houses, God would be an unoccupied property, and sooner or later, this tyrant will occupy that house and become God. Belief in one self and in those around you may be the best way to help combat genocide. Certainly if genocide exists, it needs to be wiped out, either by the victimized people or by others; for example, our troops should not be in Iraq and Afghanistan but in Myanmar and Sudan.
In any case, Peak Oil will make this problem worse, as people will say that we are running out of oil, so make sure we get it and not those barbarians over there. This problem is related to both Peak Oil and Discrimination, since committing genocide against a people is an extreme case of discriminating against them.
3. Food shortages. Population growth is strongly behind this one. If there are more mouths to feed, more land is needed to grow the food for them. Peak Oil is also strongly related to this problem. In fact, this may be one of the worst effects of Peak Oil. Food is grown for the world today in such bountiful places as Iowa and Brazil, but to grow this food requires oil to transport the food to where it is needed, to operate the farm machinery to grow the food, to make the fertilizer for the crop and so forth. About 90% of the cost of food nowadays is oil. And so food shortages will appear and get worse as oil production declines.
This problem is so related to Peak Oil that I include it as part of this problem.
So now I rank the problems of the world as follows:
1. Peak oil and Food Limits.
2. Global Climate Change and Water Problems
3. Retirement of Baby Boomers
4. Prevalence of mainline religions
5. Discrimination and genocide
Sunday, July 06, 2008
She's Real Fine, My $4.09
It's been a while since I blogged here, so I will do it now. What I see right now is a price of crude oil that keeps going up and up with seemingly no stop. The last time I saw it, on the Fourth of July, 2008, it was $145/barrel, or $3.45 a gallon. That is about the price of wholesale gasoline, and retail gasoline just recently hit $4.00 a gallon here in Virginia. That's right, $4 a gallon is here.
The national average is $4.09 a gallon. She's real fine, my $4.09, my $4.09. No, that wasn't what the Beach Boys meant when they sang their song about a hot rod car called a 409. That was back in the 1960s, when oil was plentiful, summers were endless, and were spent surfing at the beach and chasing all the girls, especially California girls. I looked up in Wikipedia to see just what a 409 was. I was not interested in beach music back in the early 1960s, and I could have cared less, and only know of the song because my brother played it all the time. I couldn't imagine it was a horse, despite the lyrics ("Giddy-ap, Giddy-ap, 409"). There was a brand of Chevrolet back then (i.e, not a hot rod but a schlock rod, like Mickey Mouse - that came from another song during those days) with a 409-cubic inch engine. That's 6.7 liters! Wow! My gas-guzzler Plymouth Voyager has at most a 3.0-liter. There was a Beach Boy mentality back then that said this would go forever.
We now know differently. There is only a finite amount of oil on this planet. Apparently there were 2 trillion barrels of oil in this planet, and 1 trillion has been pumped out. So therefore, a peak in production can be expected, and many analysts think it was somewhere between 2005-2008. The high price of oil and gasoline is causing Americans to cut back, but Indians and Chinese are still continuing to increase their use of oil. Now people are wondering when shortages will occur. I think they will not occur for some time. The shortages of the 1970s were caused by regulations on gasoline prices. There are none now, so instead prices will skyrocket. Those who have the last buck, instead of the last place in the gasoline line, will do without.
So what do we do? A mixture of developing new sources of energy, such as solar, wind, and batteries for cars, as well as conservation, is what will work in the long run. It is pointless to dig the ANWR, drill off-shore, or tear up Montana and Wyoming in search of oil for shale, since these are still non-renewable resources. We are already doing that. If it doesn't work we need to do something else.
And something else we need to do. I fear for what will happen if shortages develop and people have to do without. The Beach Boys sang about the 409; they have another song about a Thunderbird, which symbolizes our oil culture: "And with the radio blasting
Goes cruising just as fast as she can now, And she'll have fun fun fun 'til her daddy takes the t-bird away" When will Big Daddy Peak Oil take our fun away?
The national average is $4.09 a gallon. She's real fine, my $4.09, my $4.09. No, that wasn't what the Beach Boys meant when they sang their song about a hot rod car called a 409. That was back in the 1960s, when oil was plentiful, summers were endless, and were spent surfing at the beach and chasing all the girls, especially California girls. I looked up in Wikipedia to see just what a 409 was. I was not interested in beach music back in the early 1960s, and I could have cared less, and only know of the song because my brother played it all the time. I couldn't imagine it was a horse, despite the lyrics ("Giddy-ap, Giddy-ap, 409"). There was a brand of Chevrolet back then (i.e, not a hot rod but a schlock rod, like Mickey Mouse - that came from another song during those days) with a 409-cubic inch engine. That's 6.7 liters! Wow! My gas-guzzler Plymouth Voyager has at most a 3.0-liter. There was a Beach Boy mentality back then that said this would go forever.
We now know differently. There is only a finite amount of oil on this planet. Apparently there were 2 trillion barrels of oil in this planet, and 1 trillion has been pumped out. So therefore, a peak in production can be expected, and many analysts think it was somewhere between 2005-2008. The high price of oil and gasoline is causing Americans to cut back, but Indians and Chinese are still continuing to increase their use of oil. Now people are wondering when shortages will occur. I think they will not occur for some time. The shortages of the 1970s were caused by regulations on gasoline prices. There are none now, so instead prices will skyrocket. Those who have the last buck, instead of the last place in the gasoline line, will do without.
So what do we do? A mixture of developing new sources of energy, such as solar, wind, and batteries for cars, as well as conservation, is what will work in the long run. It is pointless to dig the ANWR, drill off-shore, or tear up Montana and Wyoming in search of oil for shale, since these are still non-renewable resources. We are already doing that. If it doesn't work we need to do something else.
And something else we need to do. I fear for what will happen if shortages develop and people have to do without. The Beach Boys sang about the 409; they have another song about a Thunderbird, which symbolizes our oil culture: "And with the radio blasting
Goes cruising just as fast as she can now, And she'll have fun fun fun 'til her daddy takes the t-bird away" When will Big Daddy Peak Oil take our fun away?
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
The Peak Oil Bomb Deal
OK, here is my deal. There are many indicators that are saying that we have passed the world production peak of oil, including the ever-rising price of oil, now at $121 a barrel, food shortages worldwide, high prices of food in the United States, and the increasing trouble with the airlines (although some of this is due to max airline capacity, hit in 2000 and again in 2004). This threatens the way we live and perhaps even world civilization. So are the US Presidential candidates talking about it? You would think they would.
The truth is that I have heard just about nothing from any of the three of them about peak oil. Not a word. Michael Moore is now talking about it, and I wish he would make a movie about it. But not the Presidential candidates. Barack Obama is pointing the right way by saying that a gas tax holiday won't help, but he has never talked about it directly. John McCain came within a hair's breath of mentioning it. He said that the Iraq War was fought because of oil. If he meant the second one, he is correct. However, all the pundits and hypermediots ganged up on him, and he was forced to recant and say that it was about weapons of mass destruction. John, you blew it. You really blew it. If you had maintained a peak oil stance, I would have voted for you.
But right now as it stands, I favor Barack Obama and will vote for him in November if he is on the ballot.
However, Presidential Candidates, I am throwing this deal at you. Kenneth Deffeyes said recently that "My only hope is that a candidate, who learns from private polls that he or she is behind, will drop the oil bomb into the debate." I will vote for whichever candidate drops the oil bomb into the debate. It doesn't matter whether it is Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, or even someone else, provided they are of a major party and have a chance of winning. If you start talking about peak oil, I will vote for you. Else I will vote for Obama or Clinton, whoever is running and hope for the best.
So there's the deal, Barack, Hillary, and John. What you do is up to you, but the world depends on it.
The truth is that I have heard just about nothing from any of the three of them about peak oil. Not a word. Michael Moore is now talking about it, and I wish he would make a movie about it. But not the Presidential candidates. Barack Obama is pointing the right way by saying that a gas tax holiday won't help, but he has never talked about it directly. John McCain came within a hair's breath of mentioning it. He said that the Iraq War was fought because of oil. If he meant the second one, he is correct. However, all the pundits and hypermediots ganged up on him, and he was forced to recant and say that it was about weapons of mass destruction. John, you blew it. You really blew it. If you had maintained a peak oil stance, I would have voted for you.
But right now as it stands, I favor Barack Obama and will vote for him in November if he is on the ballot.
However, Presidential Candidates, I am throwing this deal at you. Kenneth Deffeyes said recently that "My only hope is that a candidate, who learns from private polls that he or she is behind, will drop the oil bomb into the debate." I will vote for whichever candidate drops the oil bomb into the debate. It doesn't matter whether it is Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, or even someone else, provided they are of a major party and have a chance of winning. If you start talking about peak oil, I will vote for you. Else I will vote for Obama or Clinton, whoever is running and hope for the best.
So there's the deal, Barack, Hillary, and John. What you do is up to you, but the world depends on it.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Obama Forced to Apologize
Yesterday my companion blog Beyond Opinion posted something called "Bitter, Indeed", in which it says that Barack's "bitter" comments don't matter at all and that Hillary was the pot calling the kettle black when she said that Obama was "elitist and out of touch", citing her high position and her ex-President husband. it seems that Obama made a mistake in calling Pennsylvanians bitter with belief in God and guns and wanting to do something about immigrants. This sounds funny. It seems like I am talking about myself, since I am the author of both Cliffhanger and Beyond Opinion.
But anyway, today I found someone who supports what Obama said, none other than peak oil blogger Jim Kunstler, author of the "Clusterf*ck Nation Chronicles" blog. In this blog, he said that Obama was brave enough to tell the truth about Pennsylvanians, and in fact about people in general. He agreed with Obama that "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them". He then said that the press and Hillary and others ganged up on him and forced him to apologize. Jim said that he should not have apologized and that he lost authority by so doing. That is important. Obama carries charismatic authority, and that is essential to his performance as a Crisis President the next few years. I hope he gets over being blasted by the media, by Republicans, and by other Democrats when he takes office. He needs to tell us a lesson.
This is the same one as Kunstler has been telling us all the time lately, namely that we must get away from driving cars so much and that we have to be prepared to live life dramatically different in the years ahead. Kunstler is thought of as a radical for saying these things, but what else can you conclude when you look at the oil and fossil fuel supply picture? Plus add in the credit crisis and retirement of baby boomers, as well as Iraq and Iran and you see where Kunstler gets the name of his blog.
Kunstler also says that Clinton is the pot calling the kettle black. Carville is a Clinton supporter. I got a request for funds from him today for the Democrats. I threw it out. No way. For Carville said the same things Obama said, in a more picturesque way, that Pennsylvania was a redneck sandwich, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the two pieces of bread and with Alabama meat (redneck meat - an interesting concept) in between. Kunstler also decries people not coming to the defense of Obama. Finally he concludes that the election and the serious problems of the future matter a lot more than whether a "cohort of Cheez Doodle addicted rural Pennsylvania morons prays out loud for God to shoot all the Mexicans." Jim makes them sound like idiots. Today's song, as William Faulkner says, may be that of an idiot full of sound and fury.
We may see some sound and fury soon.
But anyway, today I found someone who supports what Obama said, none other than peak oil blogger Jim Kunstler, author of the "Clusterf*ck Nation Chronicles" blog. In this blog, he said that Obama was brave enough to tell the truth about Pennsylvanians, and in fact about people in general. He agreed with Obama that "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them". He then said that the press and Hillary and others ganged up on him and forced him to apologize. Jim said that he should not have apologized and that he lost authority by so doing. That is important. Obama carries charismatic authority, and that is essential to his performance as a Crisis President the next few years. I hope he gets over being blasted by the media, by Republicans, and by other Democrats when he takes office. He needs to tell us a lesson.
This is the same one as Kunstler has been telling us all the time lately, namely that we must get away from driving cars so much and that we have to be prepared to live life dramatically different in the years ahead. Kunstler is thought of as a radical for saying these things, but what else can you conclude when you look at the oil and fossil fuel supply picture? Plus add in the credit crisis and retirement of baby boomers, as well as Iraq and Iran and you see where Kunstler gets the name of his blog.
Kunstler also says that Clinton is the pot calling the kettle black. Carville is a Clinton supporter. I got a request for funds from him today for the Democrats. I threw it out. No way. For Carville said the same things Obama said, in a more picturesque way, that Pennsylvania was a redneck sandwich, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the two pieces of bread and with Alabama meat (redneck meat - an interesting concept) in between. Kunstler also decries people not coming to the defense of Obama. Finally he concludes that the election and the serious problems of the future matter a lot more than whether a "cohort of Cheez Doodle addicted rural Pennsylvania morons prays out loud for God to shoot all the Mexicans." Jim makes them sound like idiots. Today's song, as William Faulkner says, may be that of an idiot full of sound and fury.
We may see some sound and fury soon.
Monday, March 31, 2008
It's Already Here, Jim Kunstler
In his Clusterfuck Nation Chronicles of 2008 March 31, Jim Kunstler comments on his ordeal with the world aviation system on a recent trip to the American West. He says that high fuel costs, caused by Peak Oil, are killing them, and they can't fire any more employees or gyp employees on their retirement benefits. He then says, "For now, they slump like war refugees in the blow-molded plastic seats, numb with fatigue, anxiety, and disappointment. But I wonder if there will be riots in the concourses sometime later this year."
Guess what, Jim? It's already happened! It happened at Buenos Aires, Argentina's Ezeiza Airport on 2008 January 12. MSNBC reported it. Just click on MSNBC you will see how frustrated passengers, stranded two days by a strike, revolt against the airport, destroying computers and other toys of the Communications Age. It even includes a video. It may be caused by a strike, but I suspect the strike was caused by reasons having to deal with Peak Oil, such as high demand and low supply. The union said the stranding was caused by overbooking, trying to cram more cash-paying passengers per plane. So here comes Peak Oil. This one's already happened.
Guess what, Jim? It's already happened! It happened at Buenos Aires, Argentina's Ezeiza Airport on 2008 January 12. MSNBC reported it. Just click on MSNBC you will see how frustrated passengers, stranded two days by a strike, revolt against the airport, destroying computers and other toys of the Communications Age. It even includes a video. It may be caused by a strike, but I suspect the strike was caused by reasons having to deal with Peak Oil, such as high demand and low supply. The union said the stranding was caused by overbooking, trying to cram more cash-paying passengers per plane. So here comes Peak Oil. This one's already happened.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Peak Coal in South Africa?
This week certainly was a roller-coaster on the stock market. Down 300, down another 300, then up 600, and now down 200. Gold went down in price during the week, but near the end, it suddenly jumped up to $913 an ounce, the highest I have ever seen it. With energy shares and more general shares going down, I wonder why gold would shoot up in price. I found out why today.
There is a shortage of coal in South Africa, as can be seen in many articles, including this one. This shortage has gotten so severe that the government is asking industries to cut back, and as a result all gold and platinum mining in South Africa has ended. So this explains the higher gold prices. But what about gold companies?
I checked a few that made up a gold fund that I have invested in. All mine from the Americas, Europe, or Australia, except Gold Fields, which is a South Africa company. All of the stocks went up today except Gold Fields, which went down.
But it makes me wonder about coal. People say that coal will last hundreds of years. I did a calculation recently and came up with 161 years, assuming linear growth rates. So why did this shortage occur? And will the rest of the world eventually be like South Africa? I hear recently that Virginia hit peak coal in 1996. So Virginia must be importing from other states. Will the world run out of coal soon?
So right now there are two reasons why gold investing is good: the current economic downturn and coal shortages in gold producing regions.
There is a shortage of coal in South Africa, as can be seen in many articles, including this one. This shortage has gotten so severe that the government is asking industries to cut back, and as a result all gold and platinum mining in South Africa has ended. So this explains the higher gold prices. But what about gold companies?
I checked a few that made up a gold fund that I have invested in. All mine from the Americas, Europe, or Australia, except Gold Fields, which is a South Africa company. All of the stocks went up today except Gold Fields, which went down.
But it makes me wonder about coal. People say that coal will last hundreds of years. I did a calculation recently and came up with 161 years, assuming linear growth rates. So why did this shortage occur? And will the rest of the world eventually be like South Africa? I hear recently that Virginia hit peak coal in 1996. So Virginia must be importing from other states. Will the world run out of coal soon?
So right now there are two reasons why gold investing is good: the current economic downturn and coal shortages in gold producing regions.
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