Drop the Bomb!

After a six-month hiatus, I have finally found new input on Kenneth Deffeyes' peak oil blog, at http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html. He reiterates what he has said before, with figures to support him in Excel spreadsheets. The peak of conventional oil occurred in 2005 May, and conventional oil production has held at around 73 million barrels a day since then. The peak of Saudi oil has apparently been hit at the same time, at about 9.6 million barrels a day; it now has shrunk slightly to the 8 millions. This is only conventional oil, apparently. Adding in unconventional sources raises the total to 84 million barrels a day, and this has also held steady for the past couple of years, indicating this peak has been reached.

I feel no change in my lifestyle, however, other than a constant carping at my church and other places to cut our carbon emissions. This may be cutting demand slightly. But there are some who say that the demand is the same as in the past few years, despite increases in demand from China, India, and the US, because third world countries like Zimbabwe can't afford it any more and has quit buying it. This plateau will last for a while, but will be followed by a decline, and I am not sure what is going to happen after that. I think that supply and demand will play a big role in holding back the ill effects of peak oil, reducing demand by making human life here in the states more efficient and bringing solar, wind, clean liquid coal (if there is such a thing) and nuclear power into the forefront. But eventually, a great depression may await us as we gradually run out of power to run our society as it is presently constructed, sometime in the twenty teens.

This should be a major issue in the 2008 Presidential campaign. But it is no issue at all. Some of the Democrats bring up global warming, but that is not the same thing. Kenneth Deffeyes notes this and says: "It looks as if we will go through another US presidential election with no candidate calling attention to the world oil problem, or to the North American natural gas problem. My only hope is that a candidate, who learns from private polls that he or she is behind, will drop the oil bomb into the debate."

This matter needs to be discussed. Almost nowhere in any of the debates have I noticed any of the political candidates talk about peak oil. They need to talk about it. So this is my message to the candidates, especially those who are not leading: Drop the Bomb!

Sell?

Today, 2007 July 12, in his Clusterfck Nation Chronicles, Jim Kunstler said this in his "Daily Grunt":

Go figure. The Dow Jones is up over 100 points at 10:30 a.m. in the face of the following headlines:

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened 2.3% in May to $60 Billion
U.S. Foreclosures Increase 87 Percent as Prices Fall
Al-Qaeda Is More Capable of Attacking West, U.S. Report Says
Crude Oil at $73.48
Euro at $1.3773
More Subprime Woes to Come

Seems as though the bulls ran wild today. The Dow was actually up 283 points today. Yet Jim points out all these ominous events, including record foreclosures, rising oil prices, and Al Qaeda on the jihadpath. Sort of like a victory party on the Titanic.

Is Jim trying to say this is a Sell signal?

Cooling Dance

On 2007 July 7, many places around the world celebrated Live Earth Day. At my church, we had a combined meeting of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network and Moveon.org that attracted many people from my congregation, featured what people, including Democratic Presidential candidates, would do about global warming, and even featured an actual product: an LED lamp.

But was Live Earth in general a success? Jim Kunstler doesn’t think so. In his Clusterf nation Chronicles for today, "Rain Dance", he says that the event was dominated by all these rock bands strutting out their stuff making loud noises that consume electricity. That is what some of us thought at First Church when the TV turned towards what was happening elsewhere for Live Earth Day. Actually, one might call Live Earth a Cooling Dance.

You cannot do anything about peak oil or curb global warming with prima donnas playing rock music all over the place to mesmerized audiences. What does this rock music have to do with global warming? These stars could eventually allow a dictator to make use of these crowds of "fans" to take absolute power.

And what's Al Gore doing anyway, says Jim Kunstler. Why does he make movies like the prima donnas do and wail about global warming instead of getting somewhere where he can do something about it? Why doesn't he run for President?

Localize Fireworks

Every year at this time I go out into our development to see fireworks. I run or walk out among the streets hunting for fireworks displays. In past year, I have seen some impressive displays from people of our neighborhood, and I expect to do the same tonight. A problem is that these displays in many cases are illegal. They can also be dangerous and all the authorities are telling us not to do it and instead go to a public display. Indeed they can be dangerous. You need to handle them as if it could go off at any instance a flame is nearby. They cannot be handled by children and require adult supervision. But I still go out and see these displays.

Of course I could go see one of the public fireworks displays in the community, but the joy of seeing these fireworks is diminished by the traffic jams and parking problems that come with these displays.

Indeed that is a major problem of these displays. People every year get into their car or SUV and drive to a public fireworks display, causing parking and traffic problems, when so many people jam into such a small space. They consume huge amounts of gasoline, especially if they get stuck in displays. They go to the parking lots of big box stores such as Wal-Mart to watch a few fireworks ascend about 15 degrees above the horizon from some place far away.

Peak oil tells us there may be a day soon when we will not be able to drive all over the place for the pleasure of seeing pyrotechnic stars blaze in the heavens. What will we do then? All these years I go in the neighborhood to see local fireworks display, I run or walk - a good way to get exercise in too. I urge all of us to try that this year. It's a way of localizing fireworks.

A lot of other things will need relocalizing as well: growing food, getting medicine and health care, buying consumer goods, and celebrating community with the people around you. Until that day happens, at least we can enjoy fireworks and not get into traffic and parking hassles; see them locally.

Americans for Balanced Energy Choices Signs People Up Without their Permission

Yesterday I received in the mail a letter from the Americans for Balanced Energy Choices (ABEC) (Warning: Music). This letter said that I have just joined the organization. Huh? I don't remember explicitly joining such a group. I have been a member of CCAN (Chesapeake Climate Action Network) and my church's Earth Committee. These organizations seek to combat global warming and other environmental concerns through a variety of methods. I went to a conference in Wilmington, NC on global warming. I have been attending meetings of the Charlottesville Peak Oil group, and have been concerned about peak oil for some time. Did I somehow join up for something that I did not remember, or did my signing something get me to be a member of yet another environmental group that fights pollution through oil, natural gas, and coal production, among other things?

I looked at the letter. It talks about providing affordable energy. Good enough. But you can't tell organizations from their own literature any more. That is not where you get the truth. I go to something independent of ABEC; in particular, Wikipedia. Surprise! I find that it is a political action committee promoting the coal industry. I would have never signed up for something like this. Although I think we should consider coal as an option, I know from my own calculations that the disasters spoken of by the global warming people can happen only because of the use of coal. So given this, do you think I would support a group that promotes coal production? That promotes civilizational suicide?

The only way I would support coal production and other coal activities, such as coal to oil conversion, is if it does not contribute to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and only as a last resort after other actions are taken. This group signed me up without my permission. They evidently seek to sign up people without their knowledge and then say this is a grass-roots effort on the behalf of the coal industry. I beg your pardon, ABEC. This is not grass-roots. This type of lying is more aptly described as Astroturf.

I request, ABEC, that you drop me from your membership rolls, and drop everyone else that you signed up without their permission.